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\nHigh gas prices, high interest rates, and a weakening dollar, are the so-called “America’s 3 bad materials” are affecting the world’s economy, and is giving worries that this will also dampen our recovering economy as well. Our local economist Park Joon Min will help us analyze the main factors of this situation. <\/p>\n
“Hello! So, let’s talk about the rising oil prices first. It’s been hitting record highs for the past few days, right?”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
“Well, first of all a barrel of oil coming from Western Texas, has finally surpassed the $80\/barrel mark, which is a world record. Yesterday, on the New York Stock Exchange, the price for a barrel of oil went up 18 cents, bringing it to $80.09\/barrel. Dubai oil has risen 45 cents, traded at $73.79\/barrel. A direct reason for the rising price in oil, is because Texas was hit by Hurricane Umberto. However, the bigger problem is that America will just be that much more dependent on OPEC’s oil. Moreover, the super-scaled, international flow of refined oil, it looks like the oil prices and production values will continue to rise for a while.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
“Along with the oil prices, what about inflation in China’s economy?”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
“As they call it, “The World’s Factory”. As it is the world’s factory, if inflation hits China, it will no doubt effect the economy. Compared to last month, overall commodity prices rose by 6.5%. The World Bank says that China’s inflation has risen from an average rate of 3.2% to 4.6%, which is much higher than the prediction from nowhere, given by the Chinese authorities, which put the inflationary rate at 3%. This, combined with the rising prices in oil have given speculation to world-wide inflation.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
“There’s a worldwide credit stringency we’ll have to face pretty soon, isn’t there?”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
“Yes, starting with America’s stagnated housing prices, it’s continuing to cause a stir with financial institutions around the world. In the fourth quarter, housing prices will fall 2.25%. More and more subprime mortgaging loans issues are arising, which is making people speculate whether or not this problem will spread worldwide. Last month on the 11th, the London Bank put out that 6.9% raise in oil prices, is a breakthrough within the last 9 years. These are producing worries, as to whether or not it will affect the financial situation in our country as well.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
“So, with a worldwide inflation issue at hand, wouldn’t that lead to worries of a worldwide economic stagnation?”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
“When commodity prices rise, and economic stagnation come about at the same time, they call it stagflation<\/i>. In the 1970s, because of the sudden rise in oil and energy crisis at that time, the entire world faced stagflation as well. Whether or not this is a repeat of last time is what people are worried about. The London Bank also put out a publication predicting that house prices and other asset value will drop as well. Plus, America’s trade deficits can’t continue either. So there is some confidence in their exchange rates. Finally, the rising oil prices and tightening credit are part of this sudden economic change, it is critical that we develop some countermeasures immediately.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
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“\ub124, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774 \ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4 \uc11c\ubd80 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc5d0\uc11c \ud55c \uc11d\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ucc98\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c 80\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub54c\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4 \uc130\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5d0\uc81c \ub274\uc695 \uc0ac\uc5b5\uad8c\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub41c \uc774 \uc11c\ubd80 \ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4 \ud55c \uc11d\uc720\uc758 \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \uc804\ub0a0\ubcf4\ub2e4 18\uc13c\ud2b8\uac00 \uc624\ub978, 80\ub2ec\ub7ec 9\uc13c\ud2b8\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub41c \ub9c8\uac10\uc778\ub370\uc694. \ub450\ubc14\uc774 \ud604\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 45\uc13c\ud2b8\ub97c \uc624\ub978 73\ub2ec\ub7ec 79\uc13c\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub3fc \uc0ac\ud68c \uc5f0\uc18d\uc73c\ub85c \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\ub85d \uac00\ub974\ucce4\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ucc98\ub7fc \uc720\uac00\uac00 \uc624\ub978 \uc9c1\uc811 \uc6d0\uc778\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc8fc\uc5d0 \ubb50\ub77c \ub2e5\uce5c \ud5c8\ub9ac\ucf00\uc778 \uc6c0\ubca0\ub974\ud1a0\uc778\ub370\uc694. \ub354 \ud070\ubb38\uc81c\ub294 \uc11d\uc720\uc218\ucd9c\uad6d\uae30\uad6c (OPEC)\uc758 \uc11d\uc720 \uc900\uc0c1\uc774 \uae30\ub300\uc5d0 \ubabb \ubbf8\ucce4\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub354\uad6c\ub098, \uc774 \uad6d\uc81c \ucd08 \ub300\ud604 \uae09\ub958\uae30\uac04\uc774 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc18c\uc7ac\uae30\uac00 \ub098\uc11c\uace0 \uc788\uae30\ub54c \ubb38\uc5d0 \uc720\uac00\uac00 \ud504\ub85c\ub3c4\uc640 \ud55c \ub3d9\uc548\uc740 \uc624\ub984\uc138\ub97c \uc9c0\uc18d\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ub9ce\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
“\ub124, \uadf8\ub7fc, \uc720\uac00\uc640 \uae09\ub4f1\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \ub610 \uc911\uad6d\ubc14 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774\ub77c\ub3c4 \ubd88\uac70\uc9c0\ub294 \uac83 \uac19\uc560\uc694?”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
“\ub124, \uc911\uad6d\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c ‘\uc138\uacc4 \uacf5\uc7a5’\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc2b5\ub2c8\uae4c? \uc544\ubb34\ub7f0 \uc774\ub807\uac8c ‘\uc138\uacc4 \uacf5\uc7a5’\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc911\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9cc\uc57d\uc5d0 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \uc598\uae30\uac00 \ub41c\ub2e4\uba74 \uc138\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c\ub3c4 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uac16\uc744 \uc21c \ubc16\uc5d0 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7f0\ub370 \uc911\uad6d \uc18c\ube44 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc9c0\ub09c \ub2ec\ubcf4\ub2e4 6.5% \uc624\ub978 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0 \ub0ac\uac70\ub4e0\uc694. \uc774 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc138\uacc4 \uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \uc624\ub798 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \uc0c1\uce58\ub97c 3.2%\uc5d0\uc11c 4.6%\uc73c\ub85c \ud06c\uac8c \ub192\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4, \uc911\uad6d \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc6d0\ub798 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub358 \uc624\ub798 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960 \ubb34\ud3ec\uce58\ud588\ub358 3% \ud6c4\uc801 \ub118\uc5b4 \uc130\ub294\ub370\uc694. \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \uc6d0\uc720\uc911 \uc6d0\uc7ac\uac12 \uae09\ub4f1\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud569\uce58\uac8c \ub418\uba74 \uc774 \uc138\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c \uce68\uccb4\uac00 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc720\uc5c5\uc5d0 \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uac08 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
“\ub124, \uac8c\ub2e4 \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0\ub2e4\uac00, \uad6d\uc81c \uc2e0\uc6a9 \uacbd\uc0c9\ubb38\uc81c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc810\ucc45\ud558\uaca8\uc57c \ub418\uaca0\uc9c0\uc624?”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
“\ub124, \uadf8\ub807\uc9c0\uc624. \uadf8\ub798\uc11c \ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c \uc8fc\ud0dd \uac00\uaca9 \uce68\uccb4\uac00 \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0 \uc774 \uc138\uacc4\uc758 \uae08\uc8fc\uc5d0 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ubd88\uc548 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uc148\uc778\ub370\uc694. \uc62c 4\ubd84\uae30 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc9d1 \uac12\uc774 \ud55c \uc608\uc804\ubcf4\ub2e4 2.25%\ub098 \ud558\ub77d\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c0\uae08 \ud604\uc7ac\uc5d0 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub354\uad6c\ub098 \ube44\uc6b0\ub7c9 \uc8fc\ud0dd \ub2f4\ubcf4 \ub300\ucd9c\uc5d0\uc11c \ubd80\uc2dc \uc0ac\ud0dc\uac00 \uacc4\uc18d \ud655\uc0b0\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uae30\ub54c \ubb38\uc5d0 \uc774\uac83\uc774 \uad6d\uc81c \ud604\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc810\ucc28 \ud655\ub300\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uaca0\ub0d0 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc6b0\ub824 \ub098\uc624\uace0 \uc788\uac70\ub4e0\uc694. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc9c0\ub09c 11\uc77c\uc5d0\ub294 \uc601\uad6d\uc758 \ub7f0\ub358 \uc740\ud589 \ub2f9\uad6d\uac04 \uad6d\ub9ac\uac04 \ud560\ub54c 9\ub144\ub9cc\uc5d0 6.9% \ub3cc\ud30c\ud558\ub294\ub4f1 \uc774 \uad6d\uc81c\uc801\uc778 \uae08\uc720 \uc624\ub984\uc138\uac00 \uacc4\uc18d\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc6b0\ub9ac \ub098\ub77c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ud070 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\uc9c0\uc54a \uaca0\ub0d0 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
“\ub124, \uadf8\ub798\uc11c \uacb0\uad6d\uc740 \uc138\uacc4\uc801\uc778 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\ud604\uc0c1\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \uacbd\uae30 \uce68\uccb4 \uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\uaca0\ub0d0\ub294 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \uc788\uc5b4\uc694?”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
“\ub124, \uadf8\ub807\uc9c0\uc624. \uadf8\ub798\uc11c \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc624\ub974\uba74\uc11c \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4\uac00 \ub418\ub294\uac83\uc744 \uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8 \ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158<\/i>\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud558\ub294\ub370\uc694. \uc774\ubbf8 \uc9c0\ub09c 1970\ub300 \uc138\uacc4 _\uc7ac\ub294 \uc6d0\uc720 \uac12 \ud30c\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574\uc11c \uadf9\uc2ec\ud55c \uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8 \ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \uaef6\uc5c8\ub358 \uc801 \uc788\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ubc88\uc5d0 \ub610\ub2e4\uc2dc \uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8 \ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc138\uacc4 \ubcf5\ub3d9\uc778\uac83 \uc544\ub2c8\ub0d0 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \ub098\uc624\uace0 \uc788\uac70\ub4e0\uc694. \ub610\ub294 \uc774 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0\ub4f1 \uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc138\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc804\ub9dd\ub3c4 \uad6d\uc81c\uc801\uc778 \ub7f0\ub358 \uae30\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \uc804\ub9dd \uc787\ub530\ub77c \ub098\uc624\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \uacbd\uc0c1 \uc218\uc9c0 \ucc99\uc790\uac00 \uc601\uc6d0\ud788 \ub420 \uc218\ub294 \uc5c6\ub2e4\ub294 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uace0 \uc788\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uae09\uc9c4\uc801\uc778 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ud658\uc728 \uc7ac\uc8fc\uc911\uc778 \ub098\uc62c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uadf8\ub7f0 \ud604\uc0c1\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uace0 \uc788\uac70\ub4e0\uc694. \uacb0\uad6d \uace0 \uc720\uac00\uc640 \uc2e0\uc6a9 \uacbd\uc0c9\ub4f1 \uc774 \ub300\ud68c \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uae09\ubcc0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c \uc774 \uc5ed\uad00 \ub300\uc751\ucc45 \ub9c8\ub828\uc774 \uc2dc\uae09 \ud604\uc0c1\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
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